Economic Cycles and Indicators
The economy doesn't grow steadily - it expands and contracts in what we call the business cycle. This pattern of economic activity is measured by changes in real GDP, showing us where we are in economic growth or decline.
Economic indicators help predict these cycles. Leading indicators change before real GDP shifts, giving early warnings. Coincidental indicators change alongside GDP, confirming current conditions. Lagging indicators change after GDP shifts, confirming the trends afterward.
Price indices track changes in the cost of goods and services. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures price changes in commonly purchased consumer items, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) tracks wholesale price changes. Both help identify inflation - a sustained rise in the general price level.
Several types of inflation exist. Cost-push inflation occurs when production costs drive prices up. Demand-pull inflation happens when total demand exceeds production capacity. The extreme case, hyperinflation, represents rapid price increases exceeding 50 percent.
💡 Remember This: Economic indicators are like puzzle pieces - individually they tell you something useful, but together they form a complete picture of economic health.